﻿WEBVTT

1
00:00:05.530 --> 00:00:06.363
<v ->I'm Jen Nevin,</v>

2
00:00:06.363 --> 00:00:08.420
and today we'll be discussing the latest edition

3
00:00:08.420 --> 00:00:10.220
of the "Canso Market Observer".

4
00:00:10.220 --> 00:00:12.340 line:15% 
Today I'm joined with Jeff Carter and Jason Bell.

5
00:00:12.340 --> 00:00:13.910 line:15% 
Thank you guys for joining me.

6
00:00:13.910 --> 00:00:15.060 line:15% 
So let's jump in.

7
00:00:15.060 --> 00:00:18.120
Jeff, how have Canadian bonds done relative to US,

8
00:00:18.120 --> 00:00:20.542
and what do we expect going forwards?

9
00:00:20.542 --> 00:00:22.128
<v ->Sure, I guess I'll make a couple observations.</v>

10
00:00:22.128 --> 00:00:23.910
First of all, if you look at the front end,

11
00:00:23.910 --> 00:00:25.560
the very front end of both the US Treasury

12
00:00:25.560 --> 00:00:26.880
and the Canadian curve,

13
00:00:26.880 --> 00:00:29.030
US yields have dropped quite a bit more

14
00:00:29.030 --> 00:00:30.340
than Canadian yields this year.

15
00:00:30.340 --> 00:00:32.930
We've all seen the political pressure on the Fed

16
00:00:32.930 --> 00:00:36.280
to lower rates, which they have done once this year,

17
00:00:36.280 --> 00:00:38.380
and there's several more cuts that are priced in

18
00:00:38.380 --> 00:00:40.083
as expectations into the market.

19
00:00:41.150 --> 00:00:43.210
One-year US Treasury yields have lowered

20
00:00:43.210 --> 00:00:44.840
by about 90 basis points this year,

21
00:00:44.840 --> 00:00:48.090
while Canadian rates have just moved 30 basis points.

22
00:00:48.090 --> 00:00:50.280
In fact just yesterday the Canadian Central Bank

23
00:00:50.280 --> 00:00:51.820
actually came out and said that

24
00:00:51.820 --> 00:00:54.590
the current level monetary stimulus is actually appropriate

25
00:00:54.590 --> 00:00:55.480
for the market.

26
00:00:55.480 --> 00:00:59.900
So really it's a tale of two Central Bank boards.

27
00:00:59.900 --> 00:01:00.733
Further up the curve,

28
00:01:00.733 --> 00:01:03.960
if you look at the 10 and 30 year sectors of the curve,

29
00:01:03.960 --> 00:01:06.100
really Canada has rallied.

30
00:01:06.100 --> 00:01:07.700
Not to quite the same extent as the US,

31
00:01:07.700 --> 00:01:09.070
but it has rallied substantially.

32
00:01:09.070 --> 00:01:10.860
And I think really the message there from the market

33
00:01:10.860 --> 00:01:12.690
is that right now,

34
00:01:12.690 --> 00:01:16.290
Canadian-US yields relative to other G7 countries

35
00:01:16.290 --> 00:01:18.650
actually look quite attractive.

36
00:01:18.650 --> 00:01:19.483
In the long run,

37
00:01:19.483 --> 00:01:22.650
I'd say we expect when the US reverses course

38
00:01:22.650 --> 00:01:26.140
and yields normalize to higher levels in the US,

39
00:01:26.140 --> 00:01:28.457
we expect the Canadian to follow suit

40
00:01:28.457 --> 00:01:30.537
and sell off along US yields.

41
00:01:30.537 --> 00:01:32.260
<v ->And Jeff, what are investors doing</v>

42
00:01:32.260 --> 00:01:34.810
to boost yields in their portfolios?

43
00:01:34.810 --> 00:01:35.643
<v ->Sure Jen.</v>

44
00:01:35.643 --> 00:01:36.476
I think one of the things we've seen

45
00:01:36.476 --> 00:01:37.500
in the credit market this year

46
00:01:37.500 --> 00:01:38.939
is the classic reach for yield.

47
00:01:38.939 --> 00:01:40.740
That is, investors are willing to buy

48
00:01:40.740 --> 00:01:42.570
lower credit quality bonds and loans

49
00:01:42.570 --> 00:01:44.530
for ever lower yields.

50
00:01:44.530 --> 00:01:46.260
If you look at the fourth quarter of the last year

51
00:01:46.260 --> 00:01:48.340
in the US high yield market, it was soft.

52
00:01:48.340 --> 00:01:49.980
This year, we've seen nothing but buying,

53
00:01:49.980 --> 00:01:51.960
pushing prices higher and higher.

54
00:01:51.960 --> 00:01:53.800
In fact, the total return year to date

55
00:01:53.800 --> 00:01:56.800
in the US high yield market is approximately 11%.

56
00:01:56.800 --> 00:02:00.260
Meanwhile, new issue high yield deals coming to market today

57
00:02:00.260 --> 00:02:03.490
are coming with coupons of 5% or even lower.

58
00:02:03.490 --> 00:02:05.440
We think that tells us that there's quite a bit

59
00:02:05.440 --> 00:02:08.210
of frothiness in the market and that it warrants caution.

60
00:02:08.210 --> 00:02:10.310
And when we think about our investors' capital,

61
00:02:10.310 --> 00:02:12.220
we don't wanna have weights that are too high

62
00:02:12.220 --> 00:02:13.400
in the high yield market.

63
00:02:13.400 --> 00:02:14.740
We think there'll be better opportunities

64
00:02:14.740 --> 00:02:16.141
further down the road.

65
00:02:16.141 --> 00:02:17.810
<v ->And Jason, what do lower yields mean</v>

66
00:02:17.810 --> 00:02:19.420
for Canso's portfolios?

67
00:02:19.420 --> 00:02:22.260
<v ->Well, look, investing is a relative game.</v>

68
00:02:22.260 --> 00:02:24.930
You're trying to do the best you can

69
00:02:24.930 --> 00:02:26.720
with the cards that you're dealt.

70
00:02:26.720 --> 00:02:28.170
And so today's environment

71
00:02:28.170 --> 00:02:29.630
is a low interest rate environment.

72
00:02:29.630 --> 00:02:31.720
It makes things a little more difficult for us.

73
00:02:31.720 --> 00:02:33.530
We have to search a little bit further,

74
00:02:33.530 --> 00:02:34.770
a little bit harder for value,

75
00:02:34.770 --> 00:02:36.220
and be a little more skeptical.

76
00:02:36.220 --> 00:02:39.070
But ultimately we're trying to seek value

77
00:02:39.070 --> 00:02:40.730
where it's available.

78
00:02:40.730 --> 00:02:43.150
The other thing we like to tell investors,

79
00:02:43.150 --> 00:02:44.820
and this is a common misnomer,

80
00:02:44.820 --> 00:02:48.280
is that yield isn't your entire return.

81
00:02:48.280 --> 00:02:51.890
You can have a yield of 3% of portfolio,

82
00:02:51.890 --> 00:02:53.960
that doesn't mean you're gonna return 3% this year.

83
00:02:53.960 --> 00:02:55.630
If you go back to 2007,

84
00:02:55.630 --> 00:02:59.456
Canso's Corporate Value portfolio was yielding 5%.

85
00:02:59.456 --> 00:03:03.380
In the year 2009, that same portfolio earned 26%.

86
00:03:03.380 --> 00:03:05.400
So those two things don't have to be correlated,

87
00:03:05.400 --> 00:03:07.970
'cause there's always opportunities when yields change,

88
00:03:07.970 --> 00:03:09.700
to take advantage of falling bond prices.

89
00:03:09.700 --> 00:03:11.770
And that's what we try to do at Canso.

90
00:03:11.770 --> 00:03:13.500
<v ->Well, thank you both for joining me.</v>

91
00:03:13.500 --> 00:03:14.570
For more information,

92
00:03:14.570 --> 00:03:16.060
go to the Canso Funds website

93
00:03:16.060 --> 00:03:19.010
and read the latest edition of the "Canso Market Observer".

